IHS has raised its forecast for China's new photovoltaic capacity to 40 GIGAwatts in 2018
IHS Markit has raised its forecast for China's new solar pv capacity to 40 GIGAwatts by 2018.
IHS Markit said China added 34.5GW of photovoltaic capacity in the first nine months of the year, 1.5GW more than analysts had forecast. At present, China's installed solar capacity has reached 165 GIGAwatts.
China's National Energy Administration (NEA) is discussing increasing its solar expansion target to 210-270GW by 2020 from the current 105GW. IHS Markit expects China's cumulative photovoltaic capacity to reach 255 gigawatts by 2020. That assumption is based on an average of 40 gigawatts of new annual capacity over the next two years.
At the end of May, the Chinese government decided to curb the expansion of photovoltaic power generation by reducing solar incentives, IHS said. This led to less project development in the second half of the year, with China installing a record 53 GIGAwatts during 2017.
However, in spite of policy setbacks this year, falling module prices have continued to push demand higher than analysts expected. China's determination to become a global leader in renewable energy development could even double its 2020 target, according to IHS Markit.
IHS believes this determination also applies to the production of solar cells and modules, and that the challenge will be to design a policy that will reduce the cost of photovoltaic projects, especially in areas where Chinese demand is strong.
The Chinese government aims to avoid an increase in spending on public subsidies, currently around $17 billion, and IHS Markit expects to further support self-consumption, bidding or low feed-in tariffs for distributed photovoltaic systems.
