Transformer has always been the main equipment of modern power network construction, and plays a key role in all links of generation, transmission, transformation and distribution. In recent years, thanks to a large amount of infrastructure investment and the rapid development of the power industry, the scale of the transformer industry has expanded rapidly and the capacity has grown substantially. However, problems such as low industry concentration and outdated technology exist. "Much starker choices-and graver consequences-in" during the national adjustment of energy structure, the construction of smart grid, such as strategic planning, brought new development opportunities for the transformer industry, also put forward higher technical challenges: new energy power generation technology mature and further promotion, will vigorously promote new energy matching transformer market, but is more strict to the safe and stable operation of the transformer; The upgrade and renovation project of "strong smart grid" will not only create incremental market space, but also open up a huge stock market for backward transformer upgrading. Energy-saving and intelligent transformers will become the development trend of the industry, and traditional transformer manufacturers will face the pressure to eliminate their excess capacity. The rapid construction of rail transit and the popularization of electric vehicles will create new growth points for the transformer industry. Energy-saving, reliable and intelligent transformers are the cornerstone of China's new electric power network and the important guarantee to promote the reform of the energy system.

1. New energy supporting transformers have broad market space
China's energy structure is dominated by fossil fuels, and the resulting pressure on environment and resources is increasingly severe. It is urgent to promote energy transformation and build a clean energy system. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, great progress has been made in new energy generation. By 2015, non-thermal power generation accounted for 26.3%, up 7 percentage points from 2010, effectively improving the energy structure. According to the 13th Five-Year Plan for electric Power development, non-thermal power installed capacity will reach 770 million kilowatts by 2020, and electricity generation will account for 31%.
Thermal and non-thermal power generation in China

 

The construction of new energy power station has generated the demand for the substation equipment at the generation end, which has effectively driven the continuous growth of the transformer market, but has also put forward higher requirements for the corresponding transformer products. Wind power, solar power and other new energy generation has the characteristics of intermittently, randomness and poor schedulability, which requires the transformer equipment to have higher stability and reliability. Wind power station and solar power station are located in a relatively harsh environment with scattered layout, which requires high adaptability of transformer environment. Besides, they should have visual real-time monitoring function to reduce maintenance frequency. The safety requirements of transformer in nuclear power plant are extremely high, and the transformer must be able to withstand extreme earthquake and sudden short circuit at the end of its use. The rapid development of the new energy industry has laid the foundation for the growth of the transformer industry and promoted the technical innovation of the transformer industry.

(1) Wind power generation

Overview of wind power generation

Wind power is one of the renewable energy technologies with the most mature technology, the highest economy, the greatest development potential and the basic realization of commercialization. Since 2000, wind power has accounted for 30% of new installed capacity in Europe. Since 2007, wind power has accounted for 33% of new installed capacity in the United States. The United States has also proposed to increase the share of wind power consumption to 20% by 2030. With the continuous progress of wind power technology, the cost of wind power continues to fall, the long-term agreement price of wind power in the United States has dropped to the same level as the electricity price of fossil energy, and the economics of electricity has become prominent. 4

China's wind power industry development process

The development of wind power has become the core content for many countries to promote energy transformation and an important way to deal with climate change. It is also an important means for China to deepen the revolution of energy production and consumption and promote the prevention and control of air pollution. The wind power industry in China has gone through three different stages of development: 1) 2006-20

 

By the end of 2016, China's installed wind power capacity reached 149 million kilowatts, accounting for 1-1-1499.03% of the country's total installed power capacity, and the online power capacity reached 241 billion KWH, accounting for 4.02% of the country's total generating capacity. Wind power has become the third largest power source in China after hydropower and coal power.

China's installed wind power Capacity 2010-2016 (10,000 kw)
 

 

China's wind power industry market prospects

The 13th Five-Year Plan for Wind Power Development issued by the National Energy Administration in December 2016 puts forward the overall goal and corresponding measures for wind power development: by the end of 2020, the installed grid-connected capacity of wind power will reach 210 million kW, and the annual generating capacity of wind power will reach 420 billion KWH, accounting for 6% of the country's total generating capacity; Optimize the location allocation of wind power construction, promote wind power consumption, improve the level of wind power technology, and improve the management system of wind power industry. Based on the investment of 7,800 yuan/kw for onshore wind power and 16,000 yuan/kw for offshore wind power, the total investment in wind power construction during the 13th Five-Year Plan period will reach more than 700 billion yuan. With abundant wind energy resources, mature wind power industry chain foundation and urgent demand for clean energy, China's wind power industry is expected to enter a period of sustained and healthy development and enjoy broad market space in the future with the progress of wind power technology, cost reduction, allocation optimization and system improvement.

(4) Wind power supporting transformer development and market prospects

The construction of wind power station has a high demand for transformers. Each wind power generator needs to be equipped with a box-type substation, and the power station also needs a number of grid-connected high-voltage main transformers and medium-low voltage substation equipment. Due to the unstable output power of wind power generation, the transformer has high no-load and load loss, which requires the transformer to be energy-saving. The distribution of wind power stations is scattered and remote, and the transformer needs to have the characteristics of low failure rate and maintenance free. Wind power transformers need to withstand sandstorm environment, especially offshore wind power transformers need to be able to withstand long-term Marine salt corrosion, which requires high reliability. In recent years, with the continuous increase of installed wind power capacity, the wind power transformer industry has developed rapidly, the technology has been increasingly mature, and the cost has been continuously reduced. According to the 13th Five-Year Plan, the installed wind power capacity has reached 2.1

 

Data source: Public information collation

At present, China has gradually established a sound policy system for the solar industry, with a clear policy framework at multiple levels such as price, subsidy, tax and grid connection, as well as industrial standards and a testing and certification system. The industrialization level of solar energy manufacturing has been constantly improved, power generation technology has made rapid progress, photoelectric conversion efficiency has been continuously improved, and the scale of solar energy generation has been significantly expanded. In 2016, China added 34.79 million kw of solar power, bringing its total installed capacity to 77.42 million KW.

China's installed solar power capacity 2010-2016 (10,000 kW)

 

 Market prospect of Chinese solar energy industry

The 13th Five-Year Plan for The Development of Solar Energy issued by the National Energy Administration in December 2016 sets the overall goal of solar energy development: by the end of 2020, the installed capacity of solar power will reach over 110 million kilowatts, and the generating capacity will reach 150 billion kilowatts; The level of photovoltaic power price will be reduced by more than 50% compared with 2015, and the target of affordable Internet access will be achieved on the electricity side. The industrial conversion efficiency of advanced crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells reaches more than 23%. The planning focuses on promoting the construction of distributed photovoltaic and micro-grid supporting projects, giving priority to the consumption of distributed photovoltaic power generation, building the technical support system for distributed generation and grid operation, and organizing distributed power trading. It can be predicted that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the solar energy industry, especially distributed photovoltaic power stations and solar thermal power generation, will achieve sustained and stable development.
The development status and market prospect of solar power transformer
The solar power station is usually equipped with a 1 KVA transformer for every 2 500kW generating units. The power station also needs several high-voltage main transformers for grid-connected transmission and medium-low voltage substation equipment for the station. The construction of the solar power station has a high demand for transformers. With the development of photovoltaic power generation technology and the development of high-power inverter, solar power generation transformer is gradually developing towards large capacity and integration. Centralized photovoltaic power stations are usually installed in desert or plateau areas with strong sunlight, which requires corresponding transformers to have strong environmental adaptability. Solar power generation has entered a stable development track, vigorously promoting the supporting transformer market. According to the "13th Five-Year" development plan, by 2020 the installed capacity of solar power generation will reach 110 million kilowatts, and the corresponding supporting transformer capacity will probably reach 110 million kVA 9, which has a large space for growth.

 

Market prospect of Chinese nuclear power industry

In November 2016, the 13th Five-Year Plan for Power Development issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration proposed to promote the construction of nuclear power in coastal areas, with the installed nuclear power capacity reaching 58 million kw by 2020. In promoting the domestic nuclear power construction at the same time, China's nuclear industry "going out" strategy, actively participate in international competition, with the British, Pakistan, Romania, Argentina, South Africa and other countries of the nuclear power cooperation projects have been launched, in the countries along the "One Belt And One Road", a total of 17 countries in nuclear power development plan, planning unit number 120, overseas market space is very broad. Based on the huge demand of the international and domestic markets, China's nuclear power industry still has profound development potential in the future.

An overview of China's proposed nuclear power units

 

The development status and market prospect of nuclear power transformer

The transformers used in nuclear power stations include nuclear island transformers to maintain the operation of the units, conventional island transformers to connect the units, high voltage transformers for transmission and transformers for medium and low voltage stations. In April 2016, the Nuclear Safety Administration officially included safety-level transformers in the scope of evidence collection, and implemented strict access policies. Currently, few enterprises have the production capacity of nuclear power transformers, and their market share is relatively concentrated. The main transformer related technologies for domestic nuclear power plants are gradually mature. With the further acceleration of China's nuclear power development, the implementation of domestic nuclear power equipment policy, and the expansion of overseas nuclear power equipment market, the nuclear transformer market is expected to maintain a stable growth trend.

2. Distribution network construction drives the demand for medium and low voltage equipment

(1) During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the focus of power grid investment will be shifted to the distribution end

The development of China's power industry can be divided into three stages: from 1985 to 2001, due to the general shortage of power supply, the state invested heavily in the construction of power stations, showing the characteristics of "emphasizing power generation while neglecting power supply". From 2002 to 2010, the state began to promote the power system reform of "separating plants and networks and bidding for access to the Internet", and the construction focus shifted to power transmission and transformation. The scale of investment in power grid construction gradually exceeded that in power generation. At the same time, the geographical mismatch between power supply and power load center is prominent, the transmission channel bottleneck restricts the power development pattern, and the construction of transmission channel represented by UHV rises. From 2011 to 2016, with the deepening of the reform of the electric power system and the development of household electricity consumption, the fluctuation of power grid load increases, and strengthening the distribution network becomes an urgent need. The relatively lagged investment in power distribution has been rising rapidly since 2011 and exceeded the investment in power transmission for the first time. The focus of power grid construction has gradually shifted to the distribution network.

 

(2) Distribution network construction drives the middle and low voltage equipment market

The huge investment in distribution network construction during the 13th Five-Year Plan period will directly promote the development of the medium and low voltage transformer market, especially the transformer products with good energy saving effect and high degree of intelligence will show strong competitive advantages. According to the statistics of Fortune Securities on the investment structure of distribution network construction, equipment procurement accounts for about 30% of the total investment, while transformer equipment accounts for about 59%. Therefore, it is estimated that the market capacity of distribution network transformer during the 13th Five-Year Plan period will exceed 350 billion yuan, with considerable development potential.

Distribution network equipment investment structure

3. The development of rail transit promotes the new demand for traction transformers

Rail transit has always been the focus of China's infrastructure investment. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, railway investment in fixed assets reached 3.822.9 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 8.68%. The total investment in fixed assets of urban rail transit reached 1,228.9 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 22.64%. By the end of 2016, China had 124,000 km of railways in operation, including 22,000 km of high-speed railways. China has 4,152.8 kilometers of urban rail lines in operation, with subway, light rail, fast rail, tram and other diversified development trends. According to the newly revised Medium - and Long-term Railway Network Plan, China aims to have a railway network of 150,000 km by 2020, including 30,000 km of high-speed railway.

Traction power supply equipment and electric locomotive are two main equipment of electrified railway. Traction transformer is the core of traction power supply system. With the further acceleration of the construction of high-speed railway and urban rail transit during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the demand for traction transformers, rail power transformers and other signal equipment power transformers will be greatly increased. In addition, with the policy support of the state to promote the localization of rail transit equipment, relevant enterprises are facing good development opportunities.

4. Electric vehicle charging system construction drives the transformer market

The further popularity of electric cars need based on the complete charging network, promulgated by the State Council in November 2015, the electric vehicle charging infrastructure development guide, 2015-2020 ", put forward: built in 2020 of "advance, smart car pile and high efficiency" of the charging infrastructure system, including filling in power station, 12000, 4.8 million charging piles, electric vehicle charging to meet 5 million